A Runaway Breakout
June 9, 2017
With all due respect to Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey Circus, the show that has taken center stage in Washington, D.C. recently has proved to be a must-see performance for the ages. Former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee yesterday was one of the most-watched testimonies on television.
But with the big drama behind us at least for now – keep in mind that there are still a number of investigations and even more speculation of what might have been said behind closed doors following the public session – investors can now set their sights back on the fundamentals.
There are several narratives playing out in the market right now, but the overarching investment theme is the runaway breakout.
Some of you may be familiar with what I like to call a true breakout, when stocks and indices move into all-time high territory on strong volume. Oftentimes those true breakouts turn into runaway breakouts, which means that the upside never stops – or at least not until we see a mind-boggling move higher. Think NVIDIA (NVDA) or the NASDAQ Composite.
Right now, all of the major indices are at the point of a runaway breakout, including the Russell 2000, which has largely traded sideways since its initial post-election pop. The index is coming on right now, and a close above 1,420 on strong volume might be the ultimate short-term buy signal.
I’m keeping a close eye on things right now, but I think we are nearing a point where the market is going to make a dramatic move. While all signs point north, technical work also underscores that fact that failed breakouts can lead to pullbacks.
The good news is that we’re ready, and any such weakness would be considered a spectacular opportunity to buy great American companies at discounts. That’s how you build long-term wealth, and now is a great time to be buying these kinds of names.