One Major Group is Missing Out on the Rally
September 29, 2017
The market has continued its slow and steady climb this week, but despite record highs for the major indices – including a fresh one just this morning – soaring GDP and upticks in business investments, there’s one group missing out on the animal spirits: individual investors.
According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullishness plunged 6.8% to just 33% this past week. Bearishness is near a year-and-a-half low, so that certainly isn’t the problem. Instead, it’s the 38% of investors stuck in the middle. This perpetual indifference means that millions continue to miss out on the rally.
I think sitting back and watching other people make money while you sit on your cash is nuts – especially as all the ingredients to justify a bullish market are coming together.
The fact that so many folks are missing out on the rally could explain this morning’s income and spending data. Both match consensus, but they moved at a rather pedestrian pace. I continue to think there is a mismatch with spending data in general, as it’s clear consumers are looking for the greenlight to spend more.
Still, I remain bullish on this market, with the underlying growing strength of the economy as the cornerstone of my bullishness. That said, there are certain truths to keep in mind at this moment:
- Action in a few stocks has masked moderate gains for 98% of publicly traded shares.
- Geopolitical factors could create air pockets but so far have bolstered conviction.
With those truths in mind, I am being selective in buying right now. However, I’m keeping an eye on a few names that had big days yesterday.
The stock of the session was Roku (ROKU), which closed up 68% from its initial public offering price. The company is the leader in streaming gadgets, but it faces goliaths like Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL). Obviously investors think the company will continue to win, and the action and indications this morning also point to an appetite for good IPOs.
The other stock of the day was McDonald’s (MCD). It enjoyed its best session in months thanks in part to new products, and it’s also a potential winner from the GOP tax plan since it paid an effective rate of 32% last year.
There have been a lot of individual winners in the market lately, and my eyes are peeled for our next great opportunity. I hope you are among those in the market right now and not waiting for the perfect time to get back in. There is no such thing as the perfect time, and this is a rally you can’t afford to miss.