The Big Buy Signal
September 14, 2018
I have been waiting since the week before Labor Day for a sign from deep-pocketed idle funds, and I think we finally got it in the final minutes of trading yesterday. With just 15 minutes left in the session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 40 points. While the index didn’t get back to the day’s high, it is quite clear that big buyers were waiting to pounce.
With all due respect, I don’t think that was mom and pop rushing in before the close. Instead, I think some very smart investors are jockeying, and many more are itching to buy this market. Efforts to lull the sellers have failed, and I suspect yesterday’s action was a harbinger of a breakout that will unleash a lot of buying.
There are no more resistance points between the Dow’s current prices and a test of all-time highs at 26,616, and I look for it to happen real soon. Moreover, those would-be headwinds like trade and higher interest rates will become tailwinds. Talk about irony. Once that happens, there could be some magnificent upside moves.
I am keeping a close eye on market internals right now, especially market breadth, which was slightly better yesterday than in recent sessions but still cautious. I suspect contrarians might like this. However, the kind of leg higher I’m looking for needs wider participation and less selling. The breadth can change on a dime as more folks worry that the train is leaving the station without them.
One area that could help is the financial sector, which has been a disaster this year. Yesterday, regional banks looked awful.
We continue to see funds flow into sectors beyond technology. Healthcare continued its strong one-month surge yesterday, led by Boston Scientific (BSX), an old favorite of mine. The industrials, which we have a lot of exposure to in my services, have been the strongest performers in the last 30 days and were paced by Flowserve (FLS) and defense contractors. Tech came back, too, led by semiconductor names, but the sector has still trailed badly.
I think we need to see technology and transportation names (I especially like truckers) as big parts of the next leg higher. That said, this market has proven it won’t collapse when tech stocks stall.
I hope the doom and gloom crowd and those simply rooting for failure haven’t spooked you out of the market. I have been saying for some time that now is the time to be invested, so don’t get stuck fearing that the train is leaving without you – jump on board and enjoy the ride!